In the week ending 16 February, air cargo spot rates (valid for up to one month) from Western Europe to the US rose 9% from their trough in the first week of 2025 to USD 2.50 per kg, bucking the trend of the declining global air cargo market which fell 9%. And the spot rates showed 22% growth year-on-year, while the seasonal rates (valid for over one month) remained steady during the same period.
With Trump considering 25% tariffs on autos, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, the transatlantic air cargo market might take a particular hit, as these are key commodities shipped along this corridor.
If tariffs target the EU, the corridor’s freight rate could face downward pressure, compounded by potential capacity freed up by the planned removal of de minimis exemption affecting e-commerce and the potential return of container ships to the Red Sea.
