The global air cargo spot rate may have just navigated a perfect storm, as US tariffs on shipments from China and Hong Kong were adjusted to 30% for a 90-day pause starting 14 May, down from 145% following the retaliatory tariffs imposed after Liberation Day. Although de minimis bans remain in place, the reduced 30% tariff on general air freight—and either a 54% tariff or a flat fee of USD 100 on low-value postal items—could prompt cross-border e-commerce giants like Temu and Shein to resume direct deliveries from China to US consumers.
With tariffs now lowering to 54% or less, these platforms may still retain a pricing advantage, although the full impact of the remaining tariffs has yet to be determined.
In the week ending 11 May, the air cargo spot rate from mainland China and Hong Kong to the US dropped 11% to USD 4.17 per kg, compared to two weeks earlier—just before the 2 May de minimis bans. As anticipated, the US-bound rate fell below the rate to Europe, echoing the trend observed during the initial temporary ban on Chinese shipments in early February.
However, as China to US air cargo volume is expected to resume gradually with the lower tariffs, the large-scale redeployment of freighters to alternative markets may be suspended.
