Transatlantic volumes remain the key weak spot. In the first three weeks of 2026, air cargo demand from Europe to the US fell 11% year-on-year—the sharpest decline in two and a half years—while most other lanes still grew 3–4%.
Trump’s decision on 21 January to cancel the additional 10% tariffs on eight European countries should limit any front-loading. Before the reversal, shippers were likely to accelerate exports in late January to beat the 1 February deadline tied to the Greenland dispute—potentially providing a short-lived boost to volumes and rates. The economics made that rush plausible: with the corridor’s average air customs values around USD 260 per kg, a 10% duty adds roughly USD 26 per kg, far exceeding the air freight cost of about USD 2.32 per kg (week ending 18 January). When tariffs increase, paying for air can quickly become the cheaper option.
