Shippers are ordering early to get ahead of potential energy-cost increases. That front-loading is pushing ocean rates up — Far East–Western Europe ocean spot rates were up more than 70% by mid-June, against late February, before the Middle East conflict began. Low ocean schedule reliability adds to the pressure, making air the more reliable option for now and keeping volumes from sliding back to ocean. But the same front-loading is filling European warehouses early. If consumer sentiment weakens as the economy cools, those elevated stocks leave less new product to move — dampening air freight demand through the Q4 peak, exactly when shippers expect it to climb.
The near term points the other way. A US–Iran peace deal now looks likely to end the war. As it does, time-critical cargo looks set to shift temporarily from ocean to air, alongside continued humanitarian flows, as port congestion persists. But ocean carriers are expected to remain hesitant to return to the Red Sea, prolonging pressure on alternative routings.
