Three weeks into the Middle East conflict, air cargo capacity in the region remains nearly 40% below pre-conflict levels, putting upward pressure on spot rates across key trade lanes.
Outbound corridors from South Asia and Southeast Asia to the Middle East have been hit hard, with spot rates surging 50–70% in the week ending 15 March 2026 compared to two weeks prior. The spike reflects a confluence of factors: severe capacity shortages driven by heavy reliance on Middle Eastern carriers, jet fuel spot prices up 75% since the conflict began, and the imposition of war-risk surcharges.
The disruption is also reverberating across Asia–Europe lanes. Given the Middle East’s role as a critical transit hub — accounting for roughly half of capacity on these corridors — the capacity squeeze is now meaningfully affecting Europe-bound flows from across Asia. In the week ending 15 March 2026, spot rates from Northeast Asia to Europe rose 19% to USD 4.49 per kg versus two weeks prior. The increases were steeper from Southeast Asia (+58% to USD 4.89 per kg) and South Asia (+85% to USD 4.05 per kg) over the same period.
