Five months into the Iran war, air cargo spot rates on most key global corridors remain double digits above pre-war levels as of the week ending 19 July. Middle East-linked corridors show the largest gap, with rates 40–70% above pre-war levels. On China–Europe, the end of the EU’s de minimis exemption on 1 July is cutting volumes and has slowed rate growth on the Northeast Asia–Europe corridor to +21%. On the Transpacific, demand from AI-related shipments and reviving e-commerce are pushing rates up. The Transatlantic is the exception: rates fell 26% over the same period as returning summer passenger belly capacity outweighed cargo demand. This confirms that air freight rates follow market fundamentals — supply and demand — not costs.
