Global air cargo spot rates (valid for up to one month) held more than 40% above their year-earlier level in the week ending 24 May, reaching USD 3.45 per kg. The premium over long-term contracts (valid for over one month) remained wide: sat at USD 2.85 per kg — a gap that suggests continued near-term demand/supply imbalance. After peaking three weeks prior, rates appear to be regaining momentum. Spot rates have risen for two consecutive weeks, and seasonal rates resumed their upward trend in the most recent period. The resilience is notable.
Geopolitical tensions stemming from the Iran war have eased somewhat, yet rates have held firm — suggesting that demand-side pressures, including shipments tied to AI-related shipments, are a sturdier driver of elevated pricing than supply disruptions alone.
