What was meant to be a softer year for air cargo is beginning to look anything but. Five weeks into the Middle East war, air cargo capacity in the region remains over 30% below pre-war levels. The strain is no longer confined to the most directly affected markets: it is now rippling through global pricing. In the week ending 29 March, global air cargo spot rates climbed to USD 3.17 per kg, 10% above the peak season high reached in 2025 and 58 cents higher than longer-term “seasonal” rates of USD 2.59 per kg. For an industry that entered 2026 expecting weakness, the market has delivered a sharp surprise.
