The ceasefire in the Iran war has steadied nerves, but not prices. Since late April, China-to-Europe air cargo rates have parted ways. Spot rates rose 2% in the week ending 7 June to $5.45 per kg, near their recent highs. Long-term rates, which price in expectations rather than today’s scramble for capacity, tell a different story. They have fallen 7% from their late-April peak to $5.10 per kg, slipping below the spot market. When the forward curve dips beneath the present, the market is betting on softer times ahead. Brussels is about to test that bet. From 1st July the EU scraps its €150 de-minimis exemption, replacing it with a flat €3 duty on every parcel from outside the bloc; a €2 handling fee is expected to follow in November.
The target is the fast-fashion parcels of Shein, Temu and AliExpress — the very cargo that has kept freighters full. France’s head start hints at what a clumsy rollout could bring: when it imposed a levy early, parcels promptly rerouted through its neighbours. And China customs reports that China’s low-value and e-commerce exports to Europe fell 6% year-on-year in April. But some of that decline is a mirage — parcels rebundled into bulk air freight, which escapes the e-commerce data, rather than cargo vanishing. Even so, the engine that powered air freight’s growth is losing stream. The long-term rate, it seems, has already read the fine print.
