As mid-December approaches—the point at which air freight usually reaches its seasonal peak—air cargo rates have held up better than expected, albeit about 5% lower than a year ago in the week ending 14 December.
On the busiest lanes, Southeast Asia–North America stood out. Rates rose 12% over the four weeks to 14 December, a stronger run-up than last year’s, as the US trade policy continues to redirect flows away from China. Yet the Northeast Asia–North America corridor (China included) has proved more resilient than expected, with rate momentum broadly in line with last year’s. One reason is capacity reallocation: airlines have been quick to redeploy freighter aircraft towards Asia–Europe, where e-commerce demand is soaking up space. That reshuffle has left Northeast Asia–Europe rates rising a steady 10% over the same period—again, much as they did a year earlier.
By contrast, Europe–North America has cooled. A 21% increase over four weeks would normally be celebrated; it merely disappoints when set against the 31% surge recorded last year.
Backhaul routes, in general, have been resilient month on month—except from North America to Southeast Asia, where the familiar drag of trade imbalance is once again evident.
