There are some warning signs heading into 2026. After 27 straight months of near +40% year-on-year growth, China’s total cross-border e-commerce sales were flat in October. Robust expansion to Europe—up +47% in October—was offset by declines to the US and the rest of Asia.
This shift in demand is reflected in the corridors’ air cargo rates. Spot rates from China and Hong Kong to Europe not only remained above those to the US, but also rose more quickly month on month. Even so, November prices on both lanes remain around -5% lower than a year earlier—a sign that uncertainty over tariff policy still hangs over trade, despite freighter operators’ ability to redeploy capacity swiftly to where demand is.
