After two consecutive months of double-digit declines, Europe to the US air cargo spot rate edged up 1% year-on-year in January to USD 2.35 per kg, despite a -4% year-on-year decline in chargeable weight. This divergence may partly reflect the recent US tariff threat – an additional +10% on imports from eight European countries – before it was reversed on 21 January, and demonstrate both the responsiveness and nervousness of shippers trying to protect their product margins.
The announcement by the US administration certainly appears to have prompted a temporary demand bump: in the week ending 25 January, volumes rose +16% week-on-week, a period that typically sees only low single-digit growth. However, a weaker dollar – making EUR-quoted air freight more expensive – may be a larger factor behind the rate strength.
