The Europe to North America air cargo market—may be a bellwether for global trade—appears to be losing altitude. Demand has fallen for six consecutive weeks year on year, up to the week ending 2 November 2025, as earlier front-loading in anticipation of US tariffs now weighs on import volumes.
Capacity, however, has continued to expand, remaining above last year’s levels over the same period. The increase has been driven by passenger belly capacity, which accounts for nearly 90% of total available space on the route, offsetting declines in freighter capacity.
This imbalance is beginning to weigh on prices. The corridor’s air spot rate slipped by 1% year on year to USD 2.06 per kg in the week to 2 November—its first annual decline in more than a year. The drop marks a sharp contrast with the route’s earlier outperformance against the global air cargo market, which has been posting annual declines since May.
